Mortgage Rates: Three Dates to Watch Before 5 November

Mortgage rates have been creeping up this autumn, and the next three weeks bring three announcements that could shape where they go next. If your fixed rate ends in the coming months, here is what is happening and what it may mean for you.

Key points

• Bank Rate is 3.75%, but the Bank of England has warned it may need to rise if energy prices stay high.
• The average rate on new mortgages rose to 4.60% in August, up from 4.45% in July.
• Three dates to watch: inflation figures (21 October), the Budget (28 October) and the next Bank Rate decision (5 November).
• Fixed-rate payments don’t change until the deal ends, but it may be worth starting your review early.

Why mortgage rates have been rising

The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026. Three of the nine members of its Monetary Policy Committee voted to raise it to 4%.

The main concern is energy. The Bank says the conflict in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices, inflation has risen to 3.1%, and it expects inflation to go higher still. Governor Andrew Bailey said that the longer this lasts, the more likely the Bank will need to raise Bank Rate.

Lenders set fixed mortgage rates based on where they expect rates to go, not just where they are today. That is why fixed mortgage rates can rise even when Bank Rate stays the same.

The Bank’s own figures show the shift. The average rate actually paid on newly drawn mortgages rose to 4.60% in August, from 4.45% in July. Across all existing mortgages, the average edged up to 4.00%.

Three dates to watch

What a small rate change can mean

As an illustration only, take a £200,000 repayment mortgage over 25 years:

• At 4.00%, the monthly payment is about £1,055.67.
• At 4.60%, it is about £1,123.05.

That is a difference of about £67.37 a month, or roughly £808 a year. Your own figures will depend on your balance, term and the rate you are offered. You can try your own numbers in our mortgage repayment calculator.

What this means for you

If you are on a fixed rate, your payment won’t change until the deal ends. When it does, you will usually move onto your lender’s reversion rate, often its standard variable rate, which is normally higher. Our guide on when and why to remortgage explains your options.

If your deal ends within about six months, it may be worth starting to look now. Many lenders let you secure a new deal three to six months ahead, so the new rate can start when the old one ends. Staying with your current lender (a product transfer) usually doesn’t need a new affordability check if you are up to date with payments and not borrowing more.

If you are on a tracker, your rate follows Bank Rate, so the 5 November decision will affect your payments directly. Our guide to fixed, variable and tracker mortgages explains how each type works.

Check whether an early repayment charge applies before leaving any deal early. And if you are worried about keeping up with payments, the FCA advises contacting your lender as soon as possible, as lenders have a range of options to help.

We will update this page as each announcement lands.

Frequently asked questions

Has the Bank of England raised interest rates?

No. Bank Rate has been 3.75% since December 2025 and was held again on 17 September 2026. However, three of the nine committee members voted for a rise to 4%, and the Governor said a rise becomes more likely the longer high energy prices last. The next decision is due on 5 November 2026.

Will my fixed-rate mortgage payment go up?

Not during your fixed period. Your rate and monthly payment stay the same until the deal ends, whatever happens to Bank Rate. The change comes when the fixed period finishes: if you don’t arrange a new deal, you will usually move to your lender’s reversion rate, which is normally higher than the rate you have been paying.

How early can I arrange a new mortgage deal?

Many lenders let you secure a new deal around three to six months before your current one ends, and a mortgage offer is usually valid for three to six months. This means you can often lock in a rate in advance and have it start when your fixed period finishes, which may help you avoid a spell on a higher reversion rate.

Sources

• Bank of England – Interest rates and Bank Rate: our latest decision
• Bank of England – Monetary Policy Committee dates for 2026 and 2027
• Bank of England – Money and Credit, August 2026
• ONS – Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026 (release page)
• GOV.UK – HM Treasury confirms the Budget date
• FCA – Support available for mortgages as interest rates rise
• Experian – What happens when my fixed-rate mortgage ends?

Published 20 October 2026. This bulletin is general educational information only and is not regulated financial advice.